| Old OEMs, new Linux tricks? |
by Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols (Mar. 13, 2006)
I've been thinking a lot, lately, about PC manufacturers and desktop Linux. I've long believed that for desktop Linux to really get going, it needs big-time vendor support, with OEMs like Dell, HP, and Gateway putting Linux PCs on the shelves of Best Buy, Circuit City, and CompUSA.
Over at LinuxToday, my buddy Brian Proffitt has suggested that Dell should stop pussy-footing around and simply pick a desktop distribution and get on with it.
In my recent interview with Michael Dell, I actually asked him that question... several times.
We went around and around it, but now, after our conversation, and having read Brian's story, I think I finally get why Dell won't do it.
I realize, in fact, that Dell is very unlikely to ever support a desktop Linux until there's either a clear winner, or there's enough in common among the major popular distributions that Dell can support all of them without undue effort.
Why? Because Dell is not a leader.
Dell, in particular, but all the major OEMs are inherently conservative businesses. Michael Dell doesn't want to be a Linux leader. Neither does HP CEO Mark Hurd, nor Gateway's Wayne Inouye, nor any other major computer builders. They all want to focus on the best way to deliver inexpensive, powerful systems in a market where the profit margins are always razor-thin.
I know what you're thinking. Since that's the case, why not install Linux, which costs a heck of a lot less than Windows? I've made that argument myself. Others, like Novell, are trying that tack, too.
Remember what I said, though: these are "conservative" businesses. Dell had two early great ideas. One was mail-order direct sales. Lots of companies had that one. There was a time when Computer Shopper, a magazine at which I was a columnist for many years, had over a thousand huge pages. It existed as the magazine newsstand elephant because of hundreds of those companies.
The other idea, which is why Dell is still around after most of the others -- including Northgate, Austin, and Insight -- are either out of business or no longer making PCs, was to provide great customer service. Now, you can argue that its customer service isn't what it used to be, but PC Magazine's most recent survey shows a perception that support in general has gone downhill. Why? Most people think it's because they're now forced to go online for support or to deal with non-native-English-speaking out-sourced support.
So, what does have to do with Linux?
Let me spin it around. If you headed a PC company, would you want to train your support staff to handle XP, Vista, and Red Hat Linux? Not with the margins these OEMs are working with, you wouldn't.
You'd want to stick with what you know, until you're forced to move.
Consider, for example, that for years now, one of the great PC hardware questions has been: "Will or won't Dell ever use AMD chips in its computers?"
Another factor, I think, is that the PC companies are taking a page from IBM's approach to Linux.
Yes, IBM supports Linux, it markets Linux, and a large part of its profits come from Linux services. But -- sorry SCO -- it's never really developed Linux or even come up with its own house-brand of Linux. Instead, Big Blue lets Red Hat and Novell/SUSE do the heavy operating system lifting.
So, sure, eventually, when someone creates a kicks-ass-and-takes-name Linux desktop, Dell et al. will support it. But until then, they'll just wait and see. Perhaps Novell with its new SUSE Linux Enterprise Desktop will do the honors.
In the meantime, though, the major OEMs are going to continue to focus on the business models they know, and avoid dealing with this whole Linux desktop thing.
This, if they're not quick enough, may end up being a terrible mistake.
Dell made its billions by trying new things at the right time. The mom and pop computer stores didn't have a chance.
Now, Dell and the other OEMs are set in the ways that they know. They're no longer the pioneers, they're the establishment.
I believe it is quite possible that a new company will come along -- or perhaps it already exists -- that can see all of desktop Linux's built-in advantages over Windows. A business that can market Linux's strong points and realize that the cost gap between Windows and Linux leaves enough room to attain a bigger profit than PC vendors have seen in years.
Such a company wouldn't put the Dells of the world out of business, but it might very well grow to makes its owner every bit as rich as Michael Dell is today.
 About the author: Ziff Davis Internet editor Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols has been using and writing about technology and business since the late '80s and thinks he may just have learned something about them along the
way.
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