| Does Moore's Law Still Hold True? [Business 2.0] |
Dec. 16, 2002
Dylan Tweney of Business 2.0 takes another looks at the state, and validity, of Moore's Law as the Linux desktop emerges . . .
"Too bad it isn't true. According to Ilkka Tuomi, a visiting scholar at the European Commission's Joint Research Centre in Seville, Spain, not only is Moore's Law losing significance, but it never fit the data very well in the first place. In an academic paper published last month, Tuomi dissects the many variants of Moore's Law and shows that, in fact, none of them match up well with actual advances in chip technology. (See Tuomi's paper for more.) For example, processor power has increased dramatically since 1965, when Moore first proposed his law, but at a slower rate than expected, doubling about every three years instead of every two. That's equivalent to a ninefold increase in processing power per decade, compared with a 32-fold increase per decade with a two-year doubling period -- a big difference . . . "
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