| How important is Dell's Linux desktop deal? |
May 02, 2007
Analysis -- The news has quickly gotten around that Dell will be bringing Ubuntu Linux to some of its consumer desktops. Analysts and Linux rivals alike think this is a good move for both Linux and Dell. The big question now is, "How important is it really?"
As you would expect, the Linux Foundation was pleased about the news. Dan Kohn, chief operating officer and interim chief technology officer at the Foundation, said, "We'd like to congratulate Dell, a Linux Foundation member, on listening to its customers and doing this work to bring desktop Linux to a mainstream audience. We think this will quickly clear up misconceptions and show that Linux is as easy to use as the Mac [OS] or Windows, while providing far more choice and openness at a much lower cost. We look forward to competing in the marketplace, and working with Dell, distros and the community to make Linux the best desktop OS."
Gordon Haff, senior analyst for research house Illuminata, liked the move but said he didn't think it was that big a deal. "Individually, it's hard to see this meaning a whole lot for the Linux desktop market. Presumably it reduces the cost [and] effort of acquiring a Linux desktop. However, at this point, I'm not at all sure it represents new Linux desktop users. And I don't really expect to see Dell promote this fairly limited offering with any great fervor."
Haff said he wonders about this because, as one analyst who couldn't go on record put it, "We do not know if the Web page Dell set up [IdeaStorm] attracted Linux evangelists or users who really want to buy one."
Haff also doesn't think this move will have Microsoft executives staying up late, he said, because "the impact on Microsoft is limited. As Nick Carr wrote in a blog post's headline after Microsoft's earnings [announcement], 'Microsoft is dead in theory.' Sure, Microsoft has challenges ahead -- but, if anything, I see them [as being] far more about new styles of software deployments (whether SAAS or Java) that make the operating system and office suite less relevant than about competition from Linux in the traditional 'fat client' mold. Which is probably reflected in the fact that Dell will apparently be offering Linux [on] fairly low-end systems."
"That said, Linux is making some incremental gains on the desktop -- although in many cases ... as a platform for [a] browser than a traditional full-featured desktop. And those gains are getting it on OEM radar screens. Some, notably HP, have already been doing custom deals, so it's a pretty small leap to start rolling out a few standard SKUs," added Haff.
Nick Selby, a senior analyst at The 451 Group, was more upbeat about the pairing of Ubuntu and Dell. Still, he warned that Canonical, the company behind Ubuntu, will also face a challenge. "We believe that the market is there and ready for the offering. This success of this deal, then, will hinge on two key aspects. First is Canonical's ability to scale its end-user tech support. Second is how Canonical will react when customers, for the first time since the launch of Ubuntu, are pissed off at it," Selby said.
He continued, "Canonical and Ubuntu's beneficent approach has resulted in a slicker, more professional and richer user experience than any other distro, even those which charge for every copy: The Ubuntu user experience today stands proudly and rightfully next to those of commercial operating systems. The Dell OEM is not about a cheap substitute for Windows, it's about pre-loaded Linux on Dell hardware, something we believe has a small immediate market and, we believe, a much larger one long-term."
Borrowing a page from open-source guru Eric Raymond's speech in 2006 about the Linux desktop, Selby added, "Additionally, a barrier to Linux desktop adoption has been getting the thing installed and all the hardware to work. People don't want to futz around with drivers and wrappers; they want to shred tracks, play tunes and videos, and surf the Web. Ubuntu, more than any other free distro to date, makes this possible."
For Selby, the Canonical-Dell deal hinges on support. "Dell and Microsoft customers have demonstrated a willingness to pay for commercial support. That in and of itself shows the Dell deal has huge upside revenue potential for Canonical. The Dell deal, though, lives and dies by support. Canonical must scale its support offering or face user wrath," he said.
These aren't the usual Linux desktop users, Selby continued. "These are newbies ... of a totally new ilk," he said. "This third generation of newbie will have had to do no research, no homework and taken no time to learn about the OS. It is the generation which simply bought it. And you know what? They want their CDs to play, their Web experience to be the same as it is on their work computers, their PowerPoint animations to work, their bullet points to look as sexy. Apt-get what? Did you say sudo?"
Raven Zachary, the 451 Group's open-source research director, takes a somewhat different view. He believes that Dell's move has given desktop Linux a "Shot in the arm. Dell's support for Ubuntu adds some credibility to the short-term prospects for desktop Linux."
Looking ahead, Zachary thinks, "We'll see some wait-and-see from the other hardware vendors: 'Let's see how Dell does with this deal.' Also, you could see Red Hat, Novell, and others swarm in to the other hardware vendors to avoid an Ubuntu sweep."
The other Linux distributors tend to be supportive of Ubuntu's move. "We are delighted that Dell is taking a leading role in pushing desktop Linux into the marketplace," said Andreas Typaldos, CEO of Xandros, a company that has long specialized in the Linux desktop.
"We are also very pleased that by selecting Ubuntu as its pure open-source distro, Dell is endorsing the Debian tree on which both Ubuntu and Xandros are based. This is a solid first step and we feel that Dell will see the value of also offering commercial-grade Linux desktops, such as those offered by Xandros, Novell and others, as well as pure open-source offerings. By doing so, Dell will be able to satisfy the needs of commercial users and consumers, as well as the more technical users," Typaldos said.
Novell's director of Linux product marking, Justin Steinman, said, "As proponents of open source and Linux, we're happy to see Linux being preloaded onto consumer desktops. This is just one more proof point in the continued growth of Linux."
"However, I wouldn't necessarily refer to the Dell-Ubuntu deal as 'major.' Dell is only going to load Ubuntu on three machines targeted at the technical consumer market. We really view Dell's announcement today as a loading Linux onto desktops aimed at the technical enthusiast community -- the same community of people who voted on Dell's IdeaStorm Web site," Steinman continued.
"Novell's target customers for the Linux desktop are not the same folks who have been voting on Dell IdeaStorm," added Steinman. "Our target customer is the enterprise business user, and so we've focused SUSE Linux Enterprise Desktop squarely at the business market."
However, he said, "Novell believes that the Linux desktop is ready for mainstream deployment in the enterprise, and that means you need to have enterprise-quality support -- something that Ubuntu does not offer. Novell is in serious conversations with several leading hardware OEMs about preloading a Linux desktop that will be targeted at broad enterprise use. When we release SUSE Linux Enterprise Desktop on a preloaded machine, it will come with the enterprise support that our customers require to run their businesses. Stay tuned for more details."
Sources indicate that Novell SLED may yet appear on Dell or Hewlett-Packard business desktops, or both, some time in 2007. There have been no firm commitments from any first-tier vendors to place SLED on an SKU.
Scott Crenshaw, Red Hat's vice president of enterprise Linux platform business, wrote on Red Hat's news blog, "It's great news that Dell has decided to join other OEMs in delivering Linux desktops. Demand for Linux clients is increasing across the board and we're glad to see this further evidence of the inexorable expansion of open source to new users and new markets. The continually rising open-source tide is good for society, good for customers and, yes, good for the industry."
He then posed two questions: "1) Is Red Hat serious about the client (as opposed to server) market?" And "2) Why is Ubuntu involved in this announcement with Dell, and not Red Hat?"
To the first question, Crenshaw replied, "The answer is: yes. Red Hat has invested, and we continue to invest, in delivering great client solutions. But we won't be all things to all people. Client markets are very diverse with a wide range of applications, users and geographies." He then pointed to Red Hat's involvement with the OLPC (One Laptop per Child) initiative as an example.
As for the second question, Crenshaw said he thinks it misses the point. "There's a big market out there for open source and with it comes a diversity of vendors. Our focus at Red Hat is encouraging the growth of free and open-source software. We think it creates better software, better communities and better value. We think we do it well, for the customers we seek to serve. Energy should be directed to helping people take advantage of these benefits.
"From time to time we receive proposals from hardware vendors to preload software onto desktop or laptop computers," Crenshaw continued. "When the arrangement makes appropriate financial and strategic sense, we pursue it. When it doesn't make sense, we don't pursue it."
For now, it seems, Red Hat doesn't see a sensible Linux desktop deal in the works. Still, "In the case of today's Dell-Ubuntu announcement, I am not privy to the arrangement the two companies struck. I do hope the project is successful. The real win for everyone is accelerated adoption of open source," Crenshaw said.
Linspire CEO Kevin Carmony said, "We have always told Dell that they need to think of Linux in two very different markets. The first we call the "Linux Enthusiasts Market." This is a relatively small market by Dell standards. We have told them NOT to expect a large number of PC [sales] to this market, likely only around 50,000 units tops, which in Dell standards is hardly worth the bother."
That said, Carmony continued, "This is the market they must start with. For this market, we have recommended Ubuntu. It's the obvious and logical choice for them. I'm sure 70 percent of the respondents to their survey, which would have been filled out by the Linux enthusiast market, are Ubuntu users. So, if you're going to sell to that market, it's the only choice, IMHO."
"This second market for Linux, which we call the 'Linux Mainstream Market,' will require a very different product from Ubuntu," added Carmony. "One that is 1) far easier to use. (By the Linux Enthusiasts Market standards, Ubuntu iseasy to use, but by the [standards of the] Mainstream Market, Ubuntu is not nearly easy or polished enough. 2) that supports DRM, Multimedia files, DVD, Java, Flash, QuickTime, 3-D graphic drivers, etc. 3) That has a revenue model for Dell beyond moving a few low-end boxes. 4) That has a longstanding OEM program for certification, support and revenue creation, and 5) doesn't fall into the cross hairs of any potential IP lawsuits from Microsoft and others."
It is this "Mainstream" market that Linspire is now aiming at. "So, we have told Dell, to make sure they understand both of these markets and have proper expectations for each," said Carmony. "The expectation for the first Enthusiasts market is that you won't sell a lot of PCs, but it needs to be a distro that market wants, and that's Ubuntu."
Carmony continued, "Then, in the years ahead, prepare for the second, mainstream market. I think you can guess which distribution we think they should pick for that market! This was one of the main reasons we switched Linspire's baseline to Ubuntu, so that we can join in the hardware certification between the first and second markets for OEMs."
For now, though, "Ubuntu is the ideal choice and we support Dell 100 percent in that choice. This is a positive step in the right direction for ALL Linux vendors. I'm not one of those who you will find saying, 'Yay! Now that Dell is in the game, this will change EVERYTHING!' This is just one of the many logical steps that will be needed for Linux to continue to move to that second market," concluded Carmony.
-- Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols
Do you have comments on this story?
Talkback here
NOTE: Please post your comments regarding our articles using the above link. Be sure to use this article's title as the "Subject" in your posts. Before you create a new thread, please check to see if a discussion thread is already running on the article you plan to comment on. Thanks!
Related Stories:
(Click here for further information)
|
|
|
Approaching the Linux Desktop
The purpose of this paper is to help organizations evaluate the Linux desktop against their own enterprise needs and discover what benefits the Linux desktop might bring to their organizations.
Migrating To Linux: Application Challenges and Solutions
Several solutions exist to help organizations migrate in an orderly fashion from Windows to Linux desktops. This paper establishes the characteristics of an ideal cross-platform solution and reviews these alternatives in light of this ideal standard. The paper takes a closer look at the pros and cons of various solutions and outlines the business benefits that can be achieved.
Linux Advantages: Publicly Available Information on Linux Software
This paper offers a brief summary of readily-available Linux information to help businesses sort out this widely misunderstood operating system.
Top 5 Strategies for Managing Linux
Despite continuous evolution in the manageability of Linux, a 2006 survey cited manageability concerns as a top reason why organizations are hesitating to adopt Linux. Levanta believes Linux can be as manageable, if not more so, than other operating systems by following key strategies. These strategic recommendations were developed from experiences in numerous customer environments, both large and small.
Why Choose Novell for Linux?
This paper outlines the benefits of switching to the Linux platform and choosing Novell as a high-performance, enterprise solution.
Enterprise Linux Selection Guide
Considering moving your enterprise to the Linux operating system? Since there are so many similar versions, choosing the right one can be tough. This paper offers a clear process to help you make an informed decision and get the features, support, and cost that are right for your business and technical needs.
Overcoming Challenges in Managing Linux
Levanta has created a new administration model with innovative technology that breaks down the barriers to making the most of Linux systems. This paper will provide an in-depth look at the workings of Levanta’s product, the first Linux appliance of its kind.
SUSE Linux Enterprise 10 for Retail Businesses
Discover why major retailers have switched to SUSE Linux Enterprise Desktop in the back office. SUSE Linux Enterprise Desktop 10 is a low-cost desktop that offers a complete set of productivity applications and interoperates seamlessly with the other Windows, Macintosh and UNIX desktops in your store.
Moving to a Linux Desktop
Migrating from Windows to Linux on the desktop can be a substantial undertaking because it has the potential for touching -- and perhaps disrupting -- every user in your organization. Unlike a data center (server and infrastructure) migration that is largely transparent to users, the cultural and administrative transitions and environment readiness required to support a Linux desktop migration are extensive.
Seven Good Reasons to Exchange Exchange
This paper describes seven compelling reasons why you should switch from Exchange to Scalix.
|
|
|
|
|
news feed
